📊 The Trade Desk (TTD) – Rebuilding Momentum in Ad Tech

Comeback in Progress or Bull Trap?

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) is a leading independent demand-side platform (DSP) that helps advertisers buy digital media across channels like Connected TV (CTV), audio, display, and mobile.

Unlike walled gardens (e.g., Google, Meta), TTD empowers advertisers on the open internet, offering greater transparency and control over ad spend. Its proprietary platforms—including the new Kokai AI suite and Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) identity solution—aim to capitalize on the industry shift toward programmatic, privacy-conscious advertising.

Founded in 2009, the company has posted rapid revenue growth, high customer retention (>95% for 11 years), and strong EBITDA margins.

However, a Q4 2024 misstep and macro uncertainty triggered a selloff, drawing attention to execution risks. TBH the reasons weren’t clear when earnings came out

Honestly after seeing the RS on this drop like a rock, I was really disappointed.

But….looks like this was a one-quarter issue.

BTW for faster communications - join substack chat where I talk about intraday moves.

🧾 Q1 2025 Earnings Snapshot

The Q1 2025 rebound was a strong statement from management:

Source: Capyfin

Revenue: $616M (+25% YoY) vs $491M prior year

• EPS: $0.33 (+26.9%) vs $0.26 prior

• Adjusted EBITDA: $208M (+28.5%) with 34% margin

• Net income margin: 8%

• Customer retention: Above 95% for the 11th consecutive year

• Buybacks: $386M repurchased in Q1 (vote of confidence)

Q2 Guidance:

• Revenue expected ≥ $682M

• Adjusted EBITDA around $259M

Key message: Kokai issues from Q4 were resolved, and adoption is ramping up. Management emphasized strategic upgrades and expanding customer use of UID2.

✅ Tailwinds: Strong growth, robust guidance, improving margins
⚠️ Risks: Macroeconomic volatility, SBC-related GAAP opacity, tech competition (Google, Amazon)

🤖 SMA Insights – AI/ML Model Forecast

I’ve included our AI Forecast Summary (as of May 10, 2025):